This upcoming season's version of the Edmonton Oilers will feature even more offense than we saw last year. Gone are the likes of Torres, Stoll, Greene, and Pitkanen. We now have offensive production from guys like Visnovsky and Cole. The team is taking on a distinctly offensive flavor, and it wouldn't be unfair to make some predictions now of just how many they will score.
Here are my predictions, with the net change from last year's /82-game pace:
| Forward | GP | G | A | P | ||||
| Hemsky | 80 | 23 (+1) | 62 | 85 | ||||
| Horcoff | 79 | 28 (-3) | 45 | 71 | ||||
| Gagner | 82 | 16 (+3) | 46 | 62 | ||||
| Penner | 82 | 26 (+3) | 29 | 55 | ||||
| Cole | 74 | 28 | 23 | 51 | ||||
| Nilsson | 81 | 14 (+3) | 36 | 50 | ||||
| Cogliano | 76 | 17 (-) | 32 | 49 | ||||
| Brodziak | 82 | 13 (-1) | 24 | 37 | ||||
| Pisani | 77 | 16 (-1) | 17 | 33 | ||||
| Pouliot | 72 | 8 (+5) | 17 | 25 | ||||
| Schremp | 41 | 7 (-) | 17 | 24 | ||||
| Moreau | 64 | 9 (-4) | 13 | 22 | ||||
| Reasoner | 74 | 10 (-) | 11 | 21 | ||||
| Brule | 13 | 3 | 3 | 6 | ||||
| Potulny | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Reddox | 2 | 0 (-) | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Total | 984 | 219 | 377 | 597 | ||||
Defense | ||||||||
| Visnovsky | 77 | 14 | 43 | 57 | ||||
| Souray | 69 | 16 (+8) | 32 | 48 | ||||
| Gilbert | 79 | 13 (-) | 29 | 42 | ||||
| Grebeshkov | 81 | 7 (+4) | 23 | 30 | ||||
| Smid | 82 | 3 (+3) | 16 | 19 | ||||
| Staios | 79 | 4 (-3) | 12 | 16 | ||||
| Peckham | 8 | 0 (-) | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Roy | 9 | 0 (-) | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Chorney | 8 | 1 (-) | 3 | 4 | ||||
| Total | 492 | 58 | 160 | 218 | ||||
NET TOTAL: 277 Goals
NOTE:
(-) indicates either no change, or player not commentable upon
Blank space indicates new player, would need analysis of role before making goal prediction.
The Big Risers
-Gagner and Nilsson are due for more goals coming there way, as both will see extended amount of time on the powerplay, as well as recieve the top-6 role all season long. Both should get 3 more.
-Penner is going to thrive on that 1st unit PP in front of the net, and I see him chipping in atleast 3 more.
-I think Pouliot is ready to break-out into a 3rd line role. That being said, 8 goals is a modest prediction for someone playing those vital minutes with not-so-shabby Moreau and Pisani.
-Schremp I may have been a bit generous with. But honestly, 7 goals in 41 games isn't TOO much for a so-called offensive wizard playing 4th line minutes alongside Brodziak (whom he has chemistry with), as well as recieving potential powerplay time.
-Souray is due to have a big season. He was hampered by injury for all of the first 8 games last season, and with a legit D-pairing partner on the PP, he ought to fill the net for 16 this season.
-Grebeshkov showed late last year signs that he could be a top-4 forward in the NHL. I basically took his goal-scoring pace over the last 35 games and extrapolated it to get that number
-Smid's big "0" was a big discrepancy, and I believe with elevated ice time and a more important role on the team, we'll see him develop an offensive side this season, as slight as it may be.
Droppers
-I'm anticipating Horcoff doesn't go on as much as a tear as he did last season, so a drop of 3 is expected
-I think past injuries are going to really show on Moreau this season. He won't be as fast, and his offensive game will be faltering
-Staios is also going to see himself with a diminished offensive role with the addition of Visnovsky and a healthy Souray.
The New Guys
-Erik Cole played last season on the 2nd line, with Rod Brind'amour (for a bit), Tuomo Ruutu (after Rod's injury), and Scott Walker. I think the opportunities he'll recieve on the 1st line here in Edmonton, as well as on the PP ought to raise his goal-scoring from last year's slight drop - 28
-Back to playing on the right side, I see Visnovsky benefitting from once again being comfortable in handling the puck, as well as recieving open shooting lanes with Souray as his partner on the PP - 14.
That being said, is 277 goals THAT unrealistic of a prediction?
2 comments:
can't disagree with any of your amounts -- as they reflect both: reasonable assumptions and nice conservative thinking. The kids got a boat load of icetime late in the season, but comparatively little early. Evened out . . .
Only concern areas are:
- Grebeshkov doesn't have the kind of shot which (minus that awesome undressing he did of -- was it Luongo or Kipprusoff) which means big goals. He is, however -- quite smart in the offensive zone -- so would expect maybe more assists than goals.
- Cole has been playing in the SE div and the East conf where goals seemed to come easier. The West is quite a bit more defensive. That said, Carolina romped over many of the western teams who toured through Raleigh -- so there is something to be said about rolling the offense out.
- Cole may or may not get a heaping of PP time. He played the toughs alongside Brindy at EV -- so maybe MacT has visions of him alongside Horc and Hemsky at EV, but the alignment might go wacky on the PP (Penner, Gagner?)
"That being said, is 277 goals THAT unrealistic of a prediction?"
It is when you consider the fact that the highest scoring team in the league last year only scored 258
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