Springfield Predictions Part 2: Point Projections

It's never easy to simply just throw out expected point totals for players in any league. There are simply too many factors to consider. Injuries, trades, and line changes can cause serious changes in a player's output, but I'm going to make these predictions based on the line-ups I projected in the last post, and in anticipation of a healthy year from the opening day roster. Like I said, I'm no Falcons expert, so I'd appreciate any feedback from readers on these numbers, just for personal reference..

Rob Schremp: 68 GP 19-52-71
He's getting a serious upgrade in linemates with Brule and Corazzini, and should get about 5-10 games in the NHL year thanks to injuries.
Gilbert Brule: 64 GP 18-44-62
Brule is definitely going to get into some NHL games this year, especially in anticipation of yet another Moreau injury. But he should put up some great numbers alongside Schremp.
Carl Corazzini: 79 GP 32-37-69
He's going to get consistent top line minutes as a veteran, and will be counted upon all year long to provide the offense. He should establish career highs for points, as he's playing with perhaps the most talented pair of linemates he ever has.

J.F Jacques: 74 GP 17-29-46
Jacques has consistently been around a point-per-game clip in the AHL, but I'm anticipating a slow start off of his injury. He should finish the season strong playing some top line minutes, and with guys like Reddox and Lerg.
Liam Reddox: 80 GP 19-34-53
He may not score at the same clip as last year, but Reddox will put up some legit second-line numbers. He should also get some 1st line minutes as a center when Brule/Schremp get called up.
Bryan Lerg: 76 GP 16-22-38
Like most rookies, I'm anticipating Lerg will start slow, and probably spend some time on the bottom-6 lines. But this kid has serious offensive potential, and by the end of the year, he'll be making a case to remain in the top-6 for 08-09.

Vyacheslav Trukhno: 77 GP 18-34-52
Trukhno is going to get a lot of PP time, and will the first guy moved up in case of injury/call-up to the top-6. He put up 35 points last year in his pro debut, and was considered a disappointment. I'd say he bounces back this year after ending last season on a roll.
Ryan O'Marra: 69 GP 13-28-41
O'Marra is going to start the season on pace for around 35 points, but I think when and if he gets promoted to second line thanks to call-ups, he's going to put up some points playing with more offensively gifted players. I think this is the year he "gets it", and his predicted output here is straight out of the Kyle Brodziak school of player development. I'd love to see how he plays alongside Jacques and Reddox, if given the opportunity.
Colin McDonald: 64 GP 11-12-23
McDonald was the Falcons' utility man last year, playing all over the ice, often out of position. But I think his potential is limited, and he may spend some time in the ECHL if Spurgeon can rebound this year.

Stephane Goulet 61 GP 16-12-28
Goulet has always been hailed as a goalscorer, and should get some PP time when the roster is thinned later on in the season. I say he stays close to a 0.25-0.30 goal/game clip, however.
Tim Sestito 76 GP 4-11-15
Sestito will turn out another gritty year on the 4th line playing solid 2-way hockey. He should be babysitting the many guys bouncing around from the ECHL all year long.
Tyler Spurgeon 73 GP 18-21-39
I think after a slow start, Spurgeon will bounce back from the disaster that was last year and continue to put up points at a clip just above 0.5 points/game. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes that spot beside O'Marra by the end of the year.

Theo Peckham 66 GP 7-12-19
Peckham is certainly going to get some reps in the NHL this year, but regardless I don't see his offensive numbers jumping excessively. I think his defensive game should take some big strides, and the offense comes later one (a la Souray).
Josef Hrabal 74 GP 11-23-34
The 23-year old Hrabal is going to get some serious PP time, and should be relied upon as the primary offensive defenseman at ES. I think 34 points is a reasonable prediction for him, as it's a bit less than what Grebeshkov was getting at the same age with the Manchester Monarchs.

Taylor Chorney 78 GP 9-23-32
I think Chorney is quite comparable to Ottawa's Brian Lee, who put up 25 points in 55 games as an AHL rookie last year. I don't think Chorney will be handed the same kind of minutes and opportunities Lee will, but will still put up a respectable 32 points in his first pro year thanks to 2nd unit PP time.
Jeff Taylor 76 GP 3-9-12
He's going to get around what he's been averaging in his AHL career so far, and will largely be relied upon to provide a stable partner for Chorney to develop alongside. Essentially the AHL version of Steve Staios for Smid.

Bryan Young 76 GP 1-9-10
The only reason I'm predicting a slight increase in points is the fact that he'll be playing with smooth-skating Wild, who would boost any partner's point totals.
Cody Wild 78 GP 9-15-24
1st unit PP time, and his overall offensive game at ES should do wonders for him. He could probably put up numbers in the Chorney range, but I'm guessing Truit would be hesitant to give him such a long leash before developing a solid 2-way game.

Springfield Predictions Part 1: Lineups and Positions

I didn't see much of the Springfield Falcons last season, so I'm not exactly an expert here. For that, you'd have to look to Lowetide and BryanBryOil on HF, who are familiar with the workings of the team. But I've done all I could to research how the team functioned last year, and what additions have been made heading into next year. Here are my projections for next season's Falcons:


Forwards
To be consistent with my past predictions, I'm choosing Ryan Potulny to make the Oilers lineup come opening night. So guys like Brule and Schremp are going to be staying down. There are a plethora of prospects listed as left-wingers, but I think we'll see many of them playing RW.

Line 1: Schremp Brule Corazzini
Corazzini has been an upper-tier player in the AHL for a while now, and adds a great scoring touch to complement Brule and Schremp's playmaking. He's basically a less-skilled version of Cogliano, and uses his speed to be effective. Until Lerg grasps the pro game, he'll probably be option #1 at RW.
Line 2: Jacques Reddox Lerg
I don't know how Jacques will do this season; regardless he's going to have to rehab his back and slowly work himself back into top-flight form. I think taking a regular shift with steady Reddox and the offensively gifted Lerg should be a great way for him to return to his old style of play.
Line 3: Trukhno O'Marra McDonald
Unlike most 3rd lines, this one is going to see limited ice time to start the season. O'Marra is going to have to play the 2-way role effectively, and should get a serious boost from having the creative Trukhno on his wing. Colin McDonald is the AHL version of Marty Reasoner, he plays everywhere without looking terrible. Hopefully he can fulfill his draft pedigree here playing with some legitimate prospects.
Line 4: Goulet Sestito Spurgeon
Stephane Goulet is ready to play consistently in the AHL. He's an offensive force in the ECHL, and should prosper under less intense minutes playing alongside the gritty Sestito. Tyler Spurgeon is coming off a disappointing, injured season, and is going to have to work his way up back to a second or third line spot.

This all has been Oiler signings. Other guys who could grab a spot include:
Toby Lafrance: Solid offensive player in the Q, could crack the bottom-6; simply too good for ECHL.
Luke Lynes: My wild-card pick. Former '06 4th round pick went unsigned by the Capitals and could grab a 4th-line spot if one of Spurgeon or Goulet disappoint.

Defense:
The Oilers are going to be gifted on defense this season, and it's scary to think that some of these guys are going to be sent down to Stockton in the ECHL. What is going to be felt is the loss of veterans like T.J Reynolds and T.J Kemp.

1st Pairing: Peckham Hrabal
Mathieu Roy is going to have to pass through waivers to play in the AHL this year, and he's probably going to get picked up too with his cheap contract. After a successful rookie campaign, Peckham is expected to have a huge sophomore year, and potentially get interest from the big club later on due to injuries. He should play a lot of big minutes. Josef Hrabal is going to get a long look at camp, as the guy has played a solid 2-way game in Russia for a while now, and is coming off a Grebeshkov-esque season in the RSL (KHL). He should get the nod over Chorney to be Peckham's linemate.
2nd Pairing: Taylor Chorney
The young Taylor Chorney is going to be given some top-4 responsibility to start his pro career, and I think he'll be fine. He should get a security blanket playing with veteran Jake Taylor, a newly signed defenseman from the Hartford Wolf Pack--thanks to BBO for this bit-- (Robby Bina, Chorney's linemate in college, signed with the Falcons in the off-season. He's expected to start the season down in the ECHL before potentially working his way up)
3rd Pairing: Young Wild
Bryan Young did make a lot of progress in the latter half of last season, but should find himself babysitting the young and raw Cody Wild, who's going to have to work his way up before getting some serious minutes.

Who else could get some consideration:
Sebastian Bisaillion looked like the next Bergeron early last year before suffering a horrific leg injury. I project him to start the year in the ECHL, but if he hasn't lost much of his game he's a lock for the top-4 next season.

Goaltenders
With no more Deslauriers, the Falcons are going to depend on a former 1st-round draft pick, and a kid fresh from the OHL

Starter: Devyn Dubnyk
After putting in the work in the ECHL and AHL the last couple of years, Devyn Dubnyk is finally getting his chance to start. He should get almost 60 starts this season, and this may be a key year in his development. If he can prove himself a legitimate AHL starter, he not only moves up on the Oilers' depth chart, but puts the Falcons in a great position in the AHL standings.
Backup: Bryan Pitton
After a stellar final season in the OHL, where he was literally the MVP of the Brampton Batallion in leading them to the playoffs, Pitton is ready to make the jump to pro. He's going to get at least 10-15 starts behind the young Dubnyk, and hopefully he turns out to be a solid future NHL goalie.

Powerplay (thanks BBO)
Jacques Brule Brule
Trukhno Wild

Schremp is a monster operating on the right side on the PP, where he sets up as QB, as wel as with his wicked one-timer. Trukhno gets BBO's vote of confidence to be a pointman on the PP, while Cody Wild should fulfill his offensive potential here by getting quality 1st-unit time. Schremp and Brule go without saying as the top two forwards on this unit, which will from having J.F Jacques wreaking havoc in front of the net.

Corazzini Goulet Lerg
Chorney Hrabal

Hrabal will use his pro experience to help Chorney manage this PP, which is filled with goal-scoring talent. Corazzini is the closest thing to a playmaker, and should be handling the puck a lot here. Goulet is going to be around the net using his 6'3 frame to open up space for himself, while Bryan Lerg plays a poor-man's Rob Schremp role on the right side, using his one-timer to create chances. I think the defense on this unit will handle the puck more than on the first unit.

Penalty Kill
Reddox-Lerg
Peckham-Young

Liam Reddox was the top defensive player for the Falcons last year, and should get time with speedy, defensively underrated Lerg, who was vital to the strong MSU PK last year. Peckham and Young are going to be relied upon to use their size, physicality, and strength on this unit.

O'Marra Spurgeon
Hrabal Chorney

Taylor Chorney is going to have to play some minutes on the PK, which he did a decent job of in college. Hrabal should be able to handle some SH-minutes, but with this unit the defenders are going to have to be quick on the dump-ins and rely on puck-possession to kill the clock. O'Marra will get a chance to prove himself an effective 2-way player playing alongside Spurgeon, an established defensive presence in past stints in the AHL.

PP Setup Possibilities

With the changes over the last couple of years, the Oilers have transformed their powerplay from one traditionally in the middle-of-the-pack to a potentially top-5 man advantage in the league. Here are some PP possibilities for this upcoming season

First UnitThis is kind of like the "Umbrella" the Oilers set up in the 2006 playoffs, with Souray in Pronger's spot, Visnovsky in Spacek's, Penner in Smyth's, and Gagner in Samsonov's. I'm anticipating a plethora of point shots coming from this unit, and for that reason I think it's important to have a guy like Penner in front of the net to set screens and clean up rebounds. It's tough to choose between Horcoff and Gagner here, because Horcoff could work the boards so much better, but Gagner's simply got too much offensive instinct, and would work well with Hemmer down low, as well as with Visnovsky on the right side.
It's important that Visnovsky retains that right side point position. He'll be able to shoot and distribute from there. Souray can play the top of

I think this is the general consensus for the 1st unit, you'll occasionally see Horcoff in for Gagner to handle the tough puck work behind the net, and see Cole play Penner's spot to add more of a shooting touch to that near right side.

Second Unit

This is basically a poor-man's attempt at replicating the PP the Oilers had just before the Horcoff injury. Remember, this unit was starting to make some progress before the injury, so it shouldn't be too bad. Nilsson replaces Hemsky, Cole replaces Penner, and Grebeshkov replaces Pitkanen. Horcoff provides some puck-possession and play-making from the right boards, and Gilbert that point shot. Grebeshkov will be a middle-man, and should play "rover" a lot on this unit, sneaking down for tap-in's. Nilsson on the left side is something we haven't seen much of (he's usually on the right), but as a RW he should be fine playing a Hemsky-esque role from that side. It'd be interesting to see how he'd do with a cross-ice pass to either Cole or a crease-crashing Horcoff. Cole in the slot there is something the Hurricanes used, with a lot of passes coming to him from behind the net or the sideboards from Staal or Whitney. He could also play that Penner role in front as well, but I think he's more suited to the shooting from the slot.

Here's another possibility, which uses the 4-forward set up. Cole has a decent slapshot, and could be a one-timer option there on the point with Gilbert, or could move down a little for a set up from Nilsson. He's also good at playing that "middle-man" spot mentioned above, and can be relied upon to back-check if there's a turnover. Basically, he'd be playing a Stoll role. I think the main focus of this unit will be the cycling between Horcoff and Cogliano and the playmaking of Nilsson. It's just another option I'm throwing out for the second line. It kind of reminds me of the 2nd unit from last season, where there was no real presence in front of the net, just a lot of cycling and quick passes until a hole formed.

Money talks...and says Potulny is our man

Imagine how happy former Oilers "capologist" Scott Howson would have been to be part of the organization today. In the Katzian era, he would have unlimited financial flexibility to put this team together. And judging him based on how he did in the 2005-2006 season, you gotta think he would have pulled some major moves.

Well the Oilers are once again healthy spenders this season, after spending to the cap in 2007-2008.

Let's look at the breakdown, all numbers being in CAP HIT (all this thanks to nhlnumbers.com):


FORWARDS: $26.478 M
The ones I'll list right now are the ones pretty much guaranteed to stay in the lineup all year long.

1st line (11.7 M):
Cole (4, UFA)
Hemsky (4.1)
Horcoff (3.6, 5.5 EXT)

2nd line (4.591 M):
Gagner (1.625)
Cogliano (1.133)
Nilsson (1.833)

3rd line (7.247 M):
Penner (4.25)
Brodziak (0.497, RFA)
Pisani (2.5)

4th line (3.525 M):
Moreau (2.0)
Pouliot (0.825)
Stortini (0.700)


DEFENSE: $21.236 M

1st pairing (9.6 M):
Visnovsky (5.6)
Gilbert (4.0)

2nd pairing (8.1 M):
Souray (5.4)
Staios (2.7)

3rd pairing (2.386 M):
Smid (0.886, RFA)
Grebeshkov (1.5, RFA)

Reserves (1.15 M):
Jason Strudwick (0.650, UFA)
Mathieu Roy (0.500, RFA)

GOALTENDING (5.417 M):

Garon (1.1, UFA)
Roloson (3.667, UFA)
Deslauriers (0.650)

So as of right now, the Oilers have a minimal cap commitment of $53.131 M, which is $3.569 less than the cap maximum for this year.

The Oilers are right around the middle of the pack in terms of spending on forwards, while they spend 5th most in the league on defensemen. For a team that gets a lotta flack for overspending on Roloson, the Oilers manage to be in the bottom-half of the league in terms of spending on goaltending.

All this seems to bode well in Lowe's mission to replicate the Wings. They too spend greatly on their defense and forwards, while really limiting how much they give their goaltender. If the Oilers can implement the same puck-possession game, they should be successful with their cap distribution being in this manner.

OUTLOOK
The aforementioned cap is for a roster including 12 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 3 goalies.

The Oilers are likely to waive Mathieu Roy early in the season, as riding with 8 defensemen when you have great prospects like Peckham, Chorney, and Hrabal in the wings is pointless. This knocks off 0.5M off the hit (now at $52.631 M), leaving them with $4.169M to spend. Another thing to consider is a 13th forward. The Oilers will have to be careful with who they choose, for the sake of conserving cap space.

Brule would have a cap hit of $1.247M
Schremp's hit would be $0.775M
Potulny's hit is $0.708M

By electing to go with one of Schremp or Potulny, the Oilers would save $0.5M over the course of the season, an amount that would come in handy around trade deadline day. It's yet another reason for Brule to at least start the season down in the AHL. Also interesting is Potulny's waiver eligibility. If the Oilers play Schremp with Brule in Springfield, and keep Potulny up with the big club, they can choose to waive Potulny if they feel one of Schremp or Brule is ready to step up, and thus they lose Potulny's cap hit if he gets picked up.

Another thing to consider is with Roy and Potulny's ages, they are still considered prospects. Both are on cheap contracts, and will likely go to teams seeking depth if they're waived.

So considering Roy is waived, and the Oilers ride with Potulny early in the season, we're looking at a cap hit of $53.411M to begin the year, leaving the Oilers with $3.289 in flexibility come deadline day.

Prospect Timelines: 2008-2009

Jeff Petry is going to have play in at least one more classic MSU vs MU game before he gets to hit the NHL. I've prepared a top-20 list for the Oilers, much like Guy Flaming did a few days back. I'm also going to give a projected timeline for these guys, looking into the next 3-4 seasons and addressing how they would fit into the Oilers system over that time period. Remember, these are all pretty idealistic, as they are made assuming that the prospects will stick around and achieve their full potential.
eg) Chorney, Peckham, and Petry cannot all become top-4 defensemen with Visnovsky, Souray, and Gilbert all signed long-term.

1) Jeff Petry
That 2nd round pick in 2006 didn't turn out so bad afterall. After finishing his USHL career with a dominating performance, the 6'3 Petry picked up where he left off in the NCAA, standing out as a freshman in one of the toughest divisions in college hockey. He emerged as a 2-way dynamo for the Spartans, and was eventually picked to be on the Freshman All-Star team at the end of the year. He's easily the Oilers top defensive prospect, and should be a top-4 D-man in the mould of Braydon Cobourn, potentially even a top-2.
2008-2009: Will get #1 role with MSU, expected to dominate and finish as division All-Star
2009-2010: Becomes pro, starts year in AHL after impressive TC; #2 D-man after Chorney
2010-2011: #1 call-up option and potential bottom-6 player if Smid experiment ends, plays in AHL as top defenseman
2011-2012: Makes the team at age 24. Finishes year in top-4 with Gilbert-esque rookie year, ready to sign 2nd contract (Staios retirement opens up space for him to be top-4)

2) Riley Nash
The lanky, freckly Nash made his college debut with Cornell this past year. Within two games, he was promoted to the top line, and finished the season tied for the team lead in points in one of the most defensive divisions in hockey. He plays a great 2-way game, and should make the WJC tournament this year with Canada if he can keep up his impressive play. His potential is elite 3rd line center, with borderline 2nd line center offensive capabilities, similar to a Ryan Kesler/Travis Zajac. At 6'2, he's made for the job if he can put on the weight.
2008-2009: Dominates with Cornell, makes WJC team
2009-2010: Signs entry-level deal, sent to AHL, called up in case of bottom-6 center injury
2010-2011: Makes team out of TC, playing 4th line role, shows 3rd line potential later in season (especially if Brodziak dealt)
2011-2012: Established as 3rd line C

3) Rob Schremp
The saga continues with Rob Schremp, once the Oilers top offensive prospect, now struggling to make it into the NHL. Schremp had a great year with the Falcons, averaging almost a point/game. His offensive game is starting to show at the pro level, and his defensive play is improving. He's certainly got potential, but I'd say he's a late blooming version of Tim Connolly.
2008-2009: Schremp impresses at TC, yet can't find a spot on packed lineup. Is the #2 call-up option behind Brule, signs 1-year deal in off-season
2009-2010: Makes team out of TC on 4th line. In what may be his final year as an Oiler, he earns a new contract, unless the Oilers deal him due to depth issues (likely).
2010-2011: Plays on second line with Gagner/Nilsson (depending on if Brule pans out), or with Nash/Brodziak on 3rd line.
2011-2012: Established top-9 player in NHL


4) Theo Peckham
The big, bruising defender made great strides in his first pro season. At a raw 19, he was able to dominate physically and defensively, and played like a 22-year old Matt Greene did in his first pro year. Peckham has an unbelievable amount of potential, as he's also got a pretty nice set of wheels for a man his size, and a decent wrist shot. If he can get his offensive game together, Peckham could end up like Shea Weber. But a more realistic projection for now is a Kevin Bieksa in Vancouver.
2008-2009: Challenges for bottom-7 spot, ousted due to depth, first call-up option, 1st pairing defender with Falcons
2009-2010: Makes team as bottom-pairing D-man.
2010-2011: Usurps Staios as shut-down option, cracks top-4
2011-2012: Established top-4 physical defenseman in NHL

5) Jordan Eberle
The 2008 first-rounder tore up the WHL, scoring 42 goals to put him in the top-5 in league goal-scoring. He's got amazing scoring instincts, and scavenges around the net to finish a lot of plays. Eberle also possesses a strong wrist shot, solid play-making, and doesn't shy away from the physicality of big WHL defenders. Regardless, he's small, he's slow (for his size), and will need to work on bulking up and speed if he's going to pan out as a top-flight prospect. He's got Zach Parise-like potential if he does.
2008-2009: Rips up WHL
2009-2010: Signs entry-level deal, strongly challenges for a spot on opening day roster, #1 call-up all year long, especially if offensive player gets injured.
2010-2011: Makes the team a la Cogliano, gets legit chance with guys like Gagner and Nilsson.
2011-2012: Top-6 player, 20 goal scorer

6) Taylor Chorney
Although his last college year was disappointingly similar to his second, Chorney's development is not done yet. The mature blue-liner is ready to hit the pro ranks. He compensates for lack of size with great skating, intelligent decision-making, and smooth offensive abilities. He projects to potentially be a 2nd-pairing defenseman in the mould of Matt Niskanen
2008-2009: Makes top pairing in Springfield
2009-2010: 7th defenseman, gets some playing time in bottom 6 thanks to injury
2010-2011: Cracks team on bottom pairing, moves up to top-4
2011-2012: Hitting stride as 2-way defenseman on 2nd pairing

7) Jeff Deslauriers
Hardly a prospect anymore, Deslauriers is slated to make the big club this season. He hasn't played a single game in the NHL, and last year's AHL numbers may not look so good. But with a terrible defense in front of him, he was able to be the Falcons MVP, and showed his potential as a future NHL back-up. He's got size and some nice reflexes. He could eventually turn into a Mathieu Garon.
2008-2009: Back-up
2009-2010: Back-up
2010-2011: Solid back-up option
2010-2011: Shows starter potential

8) Ryan Potulny
Ryan Potulny followed up on an impressive NHL debut in 2006-2007 with a solid AHL campaign last season. He's no Schremp offensively, but his complete game and great shot make him an interesting prospect. I think he'll eventually make it as a bottom-6 player, but it won't be this year. I say he ends up like Glen Metropolit. A late bloomer that sticks in the bottom-6, but has the offensive skills to be a valuable asset at that position. If he can ever learn to play elite-level defense, you got a great 3rd line option.
2008-2009: Makes team as 13th forward, potential substitute for Stortini
2009-2010: 4th line player if he gets another contract
2010-2011: 4th line player
2011-2012: Defensive game begins to round out, becomes solid 2-way option in bottom-6 and potential 3rd liner.

9) Jean-Francois Jacques
Jacques continued his NHL cold streak, extending it to 53 games without a point. He had a terrible year, suffering a serious back injury in the AHL after putting up so-so numbers. He got another contract, because the team can't help but invest in a specimen like Jacques. He's got size, speed, and physicality, and has proven to be a great scorer in the minors. If he can ever get his shit together (as unlikely as it is), he could be a lethal power forward in the NHL, maxing out at a 2nd or 3rd line version of Erik Cole.
2008-2009: Looks good in TC, not enough for a spot, sent down.
2009-2010: Injury call-up, impresses enough to stick as 4th liner and Stortini substitute.
2010-2011: Manages to be a solid 4th liner all year long (if he gets a contract)
2011-2012: With Penner gone and Stortini's contract up, he has a legit chance to rise in the line up, even maxing out as a 2nd line option if his offense picks up.

10) Devyn Dubnyk
The tall, lanky goaltender put up average numbers in the AHL in his first full season there. With Deslauriers gone, he'll be expected to put up legit starter's numbers, and fulfill his 1st round draft pedigree. Dubnyk will have to use his size and rebound control to become an effective goaltender. I do believe he has starter's potential, and would compare him to Sean Burke or Mike Smith with his playing style.
2008-2009: Becomes outright starter in AHL, puts up solid numbers
2009-2010: Stands out as AHL all-star goalie, becomes Falcons MVP
2010-2011: Challenges Deslauriers in TC for back-up spot
2011-2012: Challenges for starter's position with Garon.

11) Josef Hrabal
Most people forgot the guy existed, but the 2003 draft pick signed an entry-level deal with the Oilers after a solid season in Russia, putting up Grebeshkov-esque numbers with Cherepovets. I'd say his potential is a slightly lesser version of Grebeshkov, and I really doubt he'll pan out (might just go to the KHL), but if he does:
2008-2009: Solid top-4 option in AHL
2009-2010: Challenges Chorney for 6-7 spot
2010-2011: If he re-signs, he'll be in the top-6
2011-2012: Established bottom-pairing defenseman a la Andrei Zyuzin

12) Alex Plante
Although he's got excellent draft pedigree, Plante's atrocious 2007-2008 season makes him a far-away prospect for now. Injuries in both prospect camp and mid-season in the WHL cost him his top-pairing role, and he ended the year with limited ice time in the Hitmen's playoff run. If he's going to bounce back, he's going to have to stay healthy, improve his speed, and get his overall development back on track. He's got Sheldon-Souray like potential, especially if he can get his shot in gear.
2008-2009: Strong bounce-back year with Hitmen
2009-2010: Signs entry-level deal, plays year with Falcons
2010-2011: Impresses at TC with 2-way ability, plays with Falcons
2011-2012: Cracks roster in bottom-6

13) Ryan O'Marra
The kid has fallen off the charts since an amazing 2007 WHC, where he looked like the next Rob Neidermeyer. O'Marra stopped talking, and started to play hockey towards the end of last season. He managed to stick with the Falcons for the final stretch, and looked impressive with his 2-way game. Regardless, he was only a bottom-6 player at that stage. He's got amazing face-off abilities and should get a real long look in a couple of years. Overall, I think his potential for now is a lesser version of Ryan Kesler, maybe even just a 4th line player. He's definitely going to be an NHL player, regardless of what role he plays.
2008-2009: Becomes top-6 player in AHL, challenges for top line
2009-2010: Competes with Nash in TC, becomes top-line forward with Falcons, call-up option
2010-2011: Cracks roster as 4th line center, moves up when injuries strike.
2011-2012: Centers Nash on third line.

14) Chris Vande Velde
It's hard to tell if Vande Velde's past season was more attributable to his linemates or his own development. This is why he's not ranked higher, for the offensive potential he showed with North Dakota would put him in the top-10 for sure. Playing with top prospect T.J Oshie and offensive dynamo Ryan Duncan doesn't hurt either, nor does having a top defenseman like Taylor Chorney to move the puck. But Vande Velde impressed at Oilers' prospect camp this past summer with his physical development and offensive capabilities. If he pans out, we could have a David Backes on our hands.
2008-2009: Plays top-line with UND, puts up numbers similar to last year
2009-2010: Plays senior year as 22-year old, improves offensive stats
2010-2011: Signs entry-level deal, plays AHL and finishes year in top-6.
2011-2012: Challenges Jacques (if he's still around) for the power forward spot with Penner's contract done.

15) Liam Reddox
After a quiet 2006-2007 campaign split between the ECHL and the AHL, Reddox exploded in 2007-2008 with a Brodziak-esque like year. He put up 44 points in a second-line role, showing a strong 2-way game that got him in an NHL game with the big club this season. If he can take it to another gear in terms of offensive productivity in the AHL, we might have another Kyle Brodziak on our hands, with the relentlessness of a Kris Draper.
2008-2009: Impresses at TC, buried by depth and plays 2nd line C in AHL
2009-2010: Makes it as 13th forward, sees some NHL action
2010-2011: Potential Pouliot/Brodziak replacement on 3rd/4th line.
2011-2012: Established bottom-6 player.

16) Cody Wild
Wild is a pure offensive defenseman who graduated to the AHL late last year after a succesful tenure with Providence. There, he learned somewhat when to jump into the play and when to take care of the zone, but still his poor decision-making and overall defensive game remains his only obstacle to pro success. He has great PP presence, and great skating, and would be an amazing offensive talent in the NHL. If he can ever round out his 2-way game, he could be a John-Michael Liles.
2008-2009: Solid top-6 player with Falcons, 2nd unit PP QB
2009-2010: Top-4 defenseman with Falcons, #1 PP option
2010-2011: 2-way game progresses to stage where he's top-pairing in AHL, #1 call-up
2011-2012: Essentially one-dimensional bottom-pairing defender in NHL, used primarily for PP and offensive capabilities.

17) Slava Trukhno
Coming in with high expectations after an explosive final year in the QMJHL, Trukhno struggled to find his offensive game most of last season with the Falcons. The last month, however, he really took off, scoring at a point/game clip. He has great offensive instincts, and does play on both ends of the ice unlike most Europeans. He's got potential to be somewhat of a Nilsson, but he'll have to find his game in the AHL before it happens.
2008-2009: Established 2nd liner with Falcons, pushes for 1st line
2009-2010: Impressive TC almost gets him a spot, #1 line with Falcons
2010-2011: Gets a shot with skilled players on 4th line with Oilers
2011-2012: Development earns some time on 2nd line, impresses with 2-way abilities; versatile player that can play all lines

18) Linus Omark
On the basis of skill and offensive instincts alone, Omark may be the Oilers top prospect. He was able to put up Fabian Brunnstrom-like numbers in the SEL, yet is a year younger than the much-hyped Stars prospect. The only limitation to Omark is his size. At 5'9, he needs to beef up if he's going to make it in the NHL. So far, he shows relentless work ethic and never backs down from physicality in Sweden. He's got great scoring touch and playmaking instincts. I think he's in the Sami Kapanen-mould in terms of overall NHL potential if his size doesn't become a factor.
2008-2009: Impresses in SEL, becomes top-line player with Lulea, gains weight
2009-2010: Signs 2-way deal with Oilers, makes statement with flashy offensive skill at TC, top line AHL player, call-up if top-6 player goes down
2009-2010: Cracks 3rd line, but offensive game has him eventually promoted to 2nd line.
2010-2011: 2nd line NHL player.

19) Johan Motin
A Peckham-like physical specimen at the age of 18, Motin exists so low on the list just because of the uncertainty of his future with the Oilers organization. He is the prototypical old-time shutdown defenseman. He makes the simple, safe play, uses his body a lot to separate his man from the puck, and never backs down from physical play. If he ever does make it to N. America, he may be a less explosive version of Vitaly Vishnevski, with a more effective overall defensive game.
2008-2009: Becomes top-4 defenseman in SEL
2009-2010: Top shut-down defenseman on SEL team
2010-2011: Shows NHL-ready game in SEL and international tournaments
2011-2012: Signs 2-way deal with Oilers, challenges over next couple years for bottom-6 spot.

20) Sebastian Bisaillion
After a ridiculous start to his 2008-2009 campaign, Bisaillion suffered a scary leg injury that pushed him out for the season. He was starting to look like a legitimate call-up option for that season, too. He has great offensive game for a bottom-pairing defenseman, and manages to hold his own in the defensive zone, using physicality and average decision-making. He's got the same kind of potential as a guy like Rory Fitzpatrick: decent 2-way ability but not quite NHL-calibre enough to be a legitimate starter. Reserve potential.
2008-2009: Remain top-6 with Falcons, pressure Roy for top-4 spot.
2009-2010: Become legit top-4 defenseman with Falcons and put up points.
2010-2011: Challenge for 7th spot, #1 call-up option for 7th spot
2011-2012: 6/7 defenseman in NHL.


Honorable Mentions:
Alexei Mikhnov: Top-15 in terms of actual skill and potential, but the likelihood of him staying in the KHL is too great to make him a legit top-20 prospect.

Stephane Goulet: After showing much goal-scoring prowess in junior, Goulet's game has failed to translate into AHL success, and is likely never going to make the NHL.

Colin MacDonald: After making excuses for his lack of scoring with Providence, the Oilers can no longer hide Macdonald's failure as a 2nd-round pick. He did put up points with the Falcons, but hasn't showed the kind of poise that would make him an NHLer.

Bryan Pitton: After a solid last year in the OHL, Pitton has a shot at becoming a back-up in the NHL. He's got quite a ways to go, though, as he's got to surpass Dubnyk on the depth chart before he becomes an option.

Milan Kytnar: He came with much mystery to the CHL last year, but failed to accomplish much offensively. Doesn't seem to have a 2-way game strong enough to become a legit bottom-6 presence in the NHL.

Robert Nilsson

I've been sold on Robert Nilsson ever since he scored in his first ever game with the Oilers. There's no doubting his skill set, nor his ability to see the game like a top-flight forward, yet he finished below both Cogliano and Gagner in scoring last season. However, if you look a little closer, you get a better understanding of how effective the kid really is.

At the beginning of the season, Nilsson was able to win a top-6 spot on the team, playing RW beside Torres and Stoll. Now, knowing how last season went for those two former Oilers, it's not hard to guess how Nilsson's first month went. After five games he was sent down to Springfield, before being called up on November 2.

This time around, Nilsson felt the effects of the MacBlender. He struggled to find his way as he had stints on all 4 lines, and by his 15th game, had only put up 4 points.
Something clicked when Fernando Pisani came back. Nilsson's numbers took off from there, as he started to see time with Horcoff-Penner, and Cogliano-Brodziak. But when he was put on a line with Pisani and Gagner, Nilsson woke up. He went on his first points streak of the year, putting up 10 points in 10 games. He clicked with Cogliano and Gagner on the 2nd unit PP, and managed to have success alongside Pisani, somewhat of a legitimate shooter.

Nilsson put up 9 points over the next 23 games, as he found himself playing alongside Kyle Brodziak on the third line. Nilsson clearly needs skilled players to thrive, and without Horcoff or Gagner to play with, he struggled to put up numbers.

On January 18, as the Oilers were being spanked by the Carolina Hurricanes on a vital eastern road trip, MacTavish finally put Nilsson on a line with Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano. At this point, he had 23 points, Gagner had 15 points, and Cogliano had 18. From here, Nilsson only put up 18 more points over the next 33 games, but his presence alongside the two rookies helped those two really take off (Gagner would put up 39 points, and Cogliano 27 over the last 33 games)

Nilsson added an element to that line that went unnoticed. He was someone that gelled perfectly with both players. His quickness and passing helped Cogliano put up a slurry of goals, while he was the only guy on the team other than Hemsky who could think at the same level as Gagner, and the two were magical together in the offensive zone. His presence was what really pushed that "kid line" to the forefront, and although he didn't put up the same amount of points as the other two, it was clear to see that he was a key figure in almost every goal they scored.

Not only was Nilsson an effective offensive player, but his presence was felt defensively as well. At +8, he led the team in plus/minus, compared to +1 for Cogliano and a terrible -21 from Sam Gagner. I remember that one overtime game versus the Blues when Nilsson made a key sprawl across the neutral zone to block a breakaway pass, before helping to set up Cogliano and Gagner down low for what would be Cogliano's 3rd OT winner in a row. Nilsson got no press for the move, but it was integral for us winning the game. It exemplifies what he brings to the team. Whether it be points or steady defensive awareness, Nilsson was always contributing

Let's see how the Desjardins numbers worked out for Nilsson.

Robert Nilsson was even better than Ales Hemsky at even strength, putting up 2.37 ESP/60 in his first full NHL season. He played with a -0.01 QC and a -0.08 QT; this yielded a ΔQ of -0.07, a literal disadvantage compared to Hemsky's 0.00.
What also sticks out is how much of a playmaker Nilsson is. He had 1.84 ESA/60, which puts him 6th in the entire league, ahead of guys like Hemsky, Savard, and Datsyuk.

Now, Nilsson didn't get anywhere near the powerplay opportunities Gagner did, and spent the entire year on the second unit. So we won't know how good he could be until he gets to play with the likes of Penner, Hemsky, and Gagner on the top unit. Even then, I think it's safe to say with his skillset and hockey mind, he'd be putting up huge numbers.

For next season, I'd look to have Nilsson play hefty minutes at even strength. He only played around 11:07 at ES a game last year, and I think with his production, that needs to go up. Also, with such a high ESP/60, he should get some time with legitimate scorers (like Cole). He ought to be playing around 12:30-13:00 a night at ES, and 2:00 a night on the PP.
As a second-line player with his 2-way capabilities, playing 15 minutes a night isn't too much to ask out of Robert Nilsson, in my mind the unsung hero of the Oilers' late-season push.

Playing for the love of the game

Stefan Legein's recent decision to retire from hockey at the age of 19 comes as a shocker to many fans of the game. How could someone so young, so talented, who had already committed so much to making a career out of hockey, suddenly decide to forgo a lifestyle that would have paid him millions?
It really puts things in perspective for the fans, who dream of living the lives these guys do. But when you lose your zeal to keep playing, what's the point?

The life of an NHL player is not as fantastic as it seems. The way the game is now, players must constantly remain in shape, and train hard even in the off-season. There are immense pressures from both those close to you as well as the fans to perform at a high level, and when one reaches the professional ranks, this pressure increases exponentially. Players spend essentially 8-10 months of the year with the team, travelling, practising, and undergoing the grueling physical tolls of an 82-game schedule. What they gain in finances and popularity comes at a cost of the stability and flexibility of family life.

Regardless of this, I'd say most NHLers absolutely love it. They're getting paid to play a game that they have loved since childhood. You see it in character guys like Ethan Moreau and Steve Staios, as well as kids like Sam Gagner and Ales Hemsky. The comradery, the fight, the drive to win, these things all push these guys to play the game hard and with a passion.

But Legein's decision reminds us that as players move further along in their careers, this "love for the game" can wane. You got to wonder how many current NHLers may be feeling the same way. They may be too young to have enough financial security with their current wages, yet too old to suddenly change career paths. Guys like Joni Pitkanen come to mind, someone with all the physical skills to excel in the game, but seems so lost and unmotivated to show up and give it his all.

I respect Legein for his decision, and I wish him well in whatever he does. At the young age of 19, he's got many years ahead of him to decide upon a career. I know fans in Columbus may be upset, and may see it as a wasted pick or a wasted resource investment, but you got to understand that the NHL life may not be as dreamy as it seems.

How good is Hemsky?

The topic of Ales Hemsky's status amongst the top players in this league has been debated a lot this summer. Not only is he the Oilers best player, but he's someone you got to love for his great skill, fluidity, and zeal to go at it regardless of what is being thrown at him.

A lot of people think Hemsky has 100-point potential, and I don't disagree, but I don't think we should be thriving on something as subjective as potential when talking about an established 25-year old player like Hemsky.

Let's talk about how he did last season stacked up against some comparable players, as well as some of the superstars of this league.

It's pretty easy to look at the overall point totals and rank Hemsky with the Brieres and Frolovs of the league. But once you take into account games played, minutes played, quality of competition and teammates (QC and QT), and breakdown of minutes played, Hemsky emerges in a completely different light (all this thanks to Desjardins)

Even Strength
Hemsky played the entire season on the first line, but had to put up with an entire half-season alongside Marty Reasoner and an out-of-shape, inconsistent Dustin Penner. He was the only legit first-line player on the team when Horcoff was out, yet managed to put up some respectable numbers along the way.
QC: 0.08
QT: 0.08
ESP/60: 2.36

Let's look at some other guys in the league that Hemsky gets compared to:

Name	QC	QT	ΔQ	ESP/60
Ales Hemsky	0.08	0.08	0	2.36
Martin Havlat	0	0.25	0.25	2.61
Marc Savard	0.1	0.15	0.05	2.32
Patrick Kane	0.02	0.36	0.34	2.32
Ryan Getzlaf	-0.04	0.32	0.36	2.26
Eric Staal	0.07	0	-0.07	2.24
Mike Richards	0.05	0.11	0.06	2.21
Marion Gaborik	0.04	0.1	0.06	2.77
Daniel Sedin	-0.01	0.14	0.15	2.09
Rick Nash	0.08	0.06	-0.02	2.01
Alexander Frolov	-0.04	0.09	0.13	2.76

Anze Kopitar

0.02

-0.06

-0.08

1.86

The ΔQ is a denomination I kind of invented here to show the advantage/disadvantage gained by these players through the difference between their QC and QT. As you see, Hemsky not only does better than most of these players, but he does it without the significant advantage they have.
Let's compare Hemsky to some of the superstars of this league.

Name	QC	QT	ΔQ	ESP/60
Ales Hemsky	0.08	0.08	0	2.36
Sidney Crosby	0.03	0.22	0.19	3.38
Evgeni Malkin	0.05	0.2	0.15	3.20
Alexander Ovechkin	0.03	0.37	0.34	3.00
Vincent Lecavalier	0.13	0.02	-0.11	2.42
Joe Thornton	-0.04	0.4	0.36	2.84
Martin St. Louis	0.11	-0.05	-0.16	2.03
Jarome Iginla	0.04	0.03	0.34	2.85
Marian Hossa	0.04	0.15	0.11	2.07
Henrik Zetterberg	0.13	0.56	0.43	2.83
Pavel Datsyuk	0.09	0.49	0.40	2.76

Something we see here is that a lot of these players get a ridiculous advantage with the ΔQ thanks to playing with other legit first-line linemates and defenders. There's no way we can compare him to the elite-3 (Malkin, Crosby, Ovechkin), but it's interesting to see how his offensive production can be compared to the likes of Zetterberg, Iginla, Datsyuk, and Thornton, who all capitalize upon an enormous advantage via the ΔQ to put up higher ESP/60. Another thing to note is how Hemsky has managed to usurp the likes of Hossa and St. Louis in terms of overall offensive effeciency at ES.

I think Hemsky has hit a level that puts him above the perennial 70-80 point scorers of the league when it comes to ES production. He's not ready to ride with the home-run hitters atop the leader board, but he's definitely up there with the 90 point scorers like Iginla, Thornton, and Datsyuk when you consider the ΔQ.
I think the biggest problem is Hemsky doesn't get enough ES time, something that has happened each season since the lockout. The aforementioned players really eat up the big minutes at ES with their respective clubs, and I think it's something we really need to look into for Hemsky. It'll not only help to lower his QC (other teams' shutdown pairings need a break, too), but will give him more chances to translate his great ESP/60 into higher totals in the points column.

Power Play
Here we hit Hemsky's specialty. Hemsky was the lone bright spot on an otherwise atrocious Oilers PP last season. He suffered through the losses of Horcoff and Souray for extended amounts of time, but managed to turn it up in the 2nd half of the year. We're not going to get any QC/QT values here, but I think it's safe to say Hemsky didn't have any significant advantages over other guys in the league in terms of QC considering the sorry state of the Oilers PP last year.
Here again are the guys we called "comparables" to Hemsky.

Name	PPP/60
Ales Hemsky	5.93
Martin Havlat	2.25
Marc Savard	5.57
Patrick Kane	4.62
Ryan Getzlaf	5.83
Eric Staal	4.57
Mike Richards	4.46
Marion Gaborik	5.46
Daniel Sedin	4.87
Rick Nash	4.55
Alexander Frolov	3.33
Anze Kopitar	5.87

Hemsky easily wins out here, playing on a significantly lesser powerplay than these guys did.
Now, the superstars:

Name	PPP/60
Ales Hemsky	5.93
Sidney Crosby	5.02
Evgeni Malkin	5.13
Alexander Ovechkin	4.55
Vincent Lecavalier	4.51
Joe Thornton	4.13
Martin St. Louis	4.79
Jarome Iginla	5.37
Marian Hossa	3.98
Henrik Zetterberg	5.20
Pavel Datsyuk	5.74

Hemsky trounces all of these guys in terms of powerplay point production. In fact, after Kovalev, Forsberg, Lehtinen, and Morrison, he was the 5th most effective powerplay forward in the league (even more impressive is that he and Kovalev were the only 2 to play more than 70 games).
Hemsky adds substance to what would otherwise be a bottom-5 PP in the league. Last year, Kovalev had a great supporting cast with Markov, Plekanec, and Kostitsyn to play with. Hemsky didn't have anywhere near the kind of talent to play with, but still put up all-star calibre numbers.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Hemsky get double-shifted in some games on the PP next season in order to improve the overall output of both units.

Summary
It's not hard to tell that Hemsky is one of the most offensively-gifted players in the league. He has shown amazing output in terms of ESP/60 and PPP/60, making him at least a top-15 player in the league when it comes to production in these situations. The problem that I see is that MacTavish is running a tight ship right now, and is not willing to hand out minutes like other teams are to their superstars. Hemsky rarely gets more than 18-19 minutes a game (compared to 21+ for a lot of the others), but has managed to put up amazing numbers regardless.

I think if Hemsky is going to take that next step, he's going to have to get more minutes. He has never shown signs of exhaustion in the past, and I think it's time for Mac-T to disregard any potential defensive troubles that arise with Hemsky on the ice, and look at what the team gains offensively with his presence. He should even consider trying him on the PK just to see how it goes (hey, even Ryan Smyth learned to become an effective penalty killer)

Now, I don't know the validity of Desjardins, but I've seen many other bloggers put out some legitimate arguments using these numbers. Regardless, I think it's safe to say that in Hemsky, the Oilers have an elite-level player who is ready to break out given the opportunity to do so.

Why Colorado will be alright even without Sakic

Joe Sakic looks pretty bewildered here after scoring his 600th career goal against the Calgary Flames. He scored 100 points in that 2006-2007 season, at the ripe old age of 37. He's one of the greatest offensive talents the game has ever seen, amassing six 100-point seasons over his career, and being one of the rare members of the 1000-assist club. At 39 years old, Burnaby Joe is now considering leaving the Avalanche for retirement, a move many have predicted would handicap the Avalanche heading into this season.

The loss of Sakic not only means that the Avs lose their captain, but they lose their top offensive weapon. But I think what a lot of us have forgotten is that the Avalanche are one hell of an offensive team, even without him and Brunette.

With Sakic gone, it is time for young Paul Stastny to assume the first-line center role. He will be accompanied by two 32-year olds, sniper Milan Hejduk and feisty Ryan Smyth. Both of them are capable of scoring 35+ goals given a legit set-up man. A healthy Smyth should do a lot for this top line, giving them someone to work the boards and the front of the net, and open up space for Stastny to operate and Hejduk to set up.

The second line is not so easy to predict. Youngsters Wojtek Wolski and Marek Svatos are coming off successful seasons, where both thrived alongside the brilliant Stastny. But with his promotion to the top line, who is there to fill the role?
T.J Hensick has been one of Colorado's top offensive prospects over the last couple of years, and finally broke in with the club for a few games last year, finishing the year in the playoffs with the club, putting up one point in 2 games. Many believe that the second-line spot is his for the taking.
If Hensick fails, Wolski will be shifted to the center position, a spot he's played before in junior. That 2nd line LW spot then goes to Darcy Tucker, a perennial 20-goal scorer that gives that line a gritty touch.
Either way, expect the offensive production on that line to be around 65 goals for next season, as Wolski's playmaking should do enough to make up for Stastny's absence.

The third line will be comprised of three gritty guys. Tyler Arnason is a capable 2-way player, and should excel in the bottom 6 alongside Ben Guite and character guy Ian Laperriere. They will get a lot of checking responsbility with the essential one-dimensional play (other than Stastny) of the top-6. Keep in mind if Hensick cracks the second line we'll see Tucker take Laperriere's spot here.

Rounding out the forwards are youngsters David Jones, who impressed late last year in the Avs' playoff push, and Cody McLeod, a kid who played steady in all 10 playoff games last year. T.J Hensick could be the center here if he doesn't crack the 2nd line. If he does, then expect to see Laperriere tutoring the kids on the line.

If you ask me, this offense will be in the top-3 in the division.

Now, I'll get to the goaltending last, but to make up for a potentially shoddy situation between the pipes, the Avs have assembled potentially the most defensively-sound blue line in the NHL (next to the Wings, of course).

Fresh off a brand new contract, John Michael Liles will be expected to carry the offensive load, and should get some big minutes playing alongside Adam Foote on the top line.

Although the loss of Kurt Sauer is a heavy one (in my opinion one of the most underrated defenders in the game), the Avs are going to have a sturdy replacement in proven veteran Ruslan Salei. He'll be paired alongside Brett Clark, who's 2-way game took huge strides last season. Together, they should be the second pairing, barring a Hannan/Leopold bounce back year, and should contribute a fair bit offensively while providing some solid shutdown potential.

The Avs are expecting huge bounce-back years from Scott Hannan and Jordan Leopold. Hannan, once considered a top-5 shutdown defenseman in the NHL, was atrocious last year, putting up a -4 plus/minus even after being relegated to second-pairing duty. Leopold has struggled to stay healthy since coming to Colorado, and regardless of putting up solid numbers when on the ice, needs to avoid injury if he's going to become a legit part of the team. If both can return to their true form, they should form a formidable, versatile pairing, and potentially challenge Liles and Foote for the most minutes on the team. The fate of these two players this year is a HUGE factor in determining just how good the Avs will be, they really need them to step it up.

I'd say the defense of the Avs is certainly top-2 in the division.

I know the goaltending sounds bad, especially the addition of Andrew Raycroft, but I think we're overreacting. Peter Budaj was being hailed as a legit starter by most Avs fans late in 2006-2007 when the team was making their late-season surge. He had a .905 SP on a formerly weak defensive team, and a 2.68 GAA. And this was including the early season struggles of the Avalanche. Last season, he was usurped by big-money Jose Theodore, but still managed to put up even better numbers as a back-up. I'd compare Colorado's situation right now in goal to the Oilers' at the beginning of the 2005-2006 season. You have a guy like Markannen in Budaj, who has proven over the years that he can be leaned upon when there's no one else, and someone like Conklin in Raycroft, where you don't know just what you're going to get with him. You never know what a fresh team might do for the kid, and if the Avs can grab a legit starter before the deadline while still contending for a spot, they're in prime position to make the playoffs or even win the division.

The goaltending is bottom-2 in the division as of now.

So there, even if the pundits are picking either the Oilers or Flames to win the division, I'd say we ought to keep our eyes peeled for the Colorado Avalanche, a team that regardless of potentially losing Sakic, may be a contender this season.

Head Office Shuffling: Why?

"I plan to leave the management of the team and its public communications to the management."
-Darryl Katz, after finalizing his takeover of the Edmonton Oilers
"He wanted to allow us the management to strenghten our management group"
-Kevin Lowe

Heading into this off-season, new Oilers owner Darryl Katz seemed to project an "hands-off" mentality when addressing how he would be involved in the daily running of things as the Oilers GM. But this move has all the makings of a Katzian decision.

I think we were all under the impression that things were going to be the same regardless of the ownership change. Lowe would continue to be the GM, and be the big player in the head office in terms of dealing with other teams, agents, and the running of the team.

But I think Katz noticed that some things needed to change over his first month as GM. Lowe is one of the most brilliant hockey minds in the game, someone more than capable of running a team. But his passion for the well-being of this organization has caused some tumultuous situations, and he is disliked by many prominent members of the hockey community (Burke, Winters, Regier). On top of that, the image of Edmonton had taken a considerable toll under Lowe's tenure as GM. That's not necessarily Lowe's fault, but people around the league are quick to associate his face with the city's poor image. Losing out on both Hossa and Jagr must have been disheartening for Katz, who usually is able to do what he wants in the business world. The idea of bringing a fresh, positive face to the front office would help in his goal of essentially turning this franchise, this city, and its image around in the future.

He looked around the league, and saw what was bringing teams success. The Detroit Red Wings, the top franchise in the NHL for the past decade, have always been known for their strong scouting staff. But on top of that, they have an exceptional management group aiding GM Ken Holland with running the club (Jim Devallano, Scotty Bowman, Steve Yzerman, and Jim Nill). Katz has been used to having a management group coordinate his business affairs (including with the Rexall Group), and it was only natural for him to take to this idea of accumulating a group of experienced, reknowned hockey minds in order to strengthen the overall management of the team. Investing money in brining in quality talent at the highest levels of a team's operations seems like a sensible way of improving the on-ice product.

With all this on his mind, Katz approached Lowe about the possibility of shifting things around. He respects Lowe and what his knowledge brings to this organization, but he was simply not ideal to have around as the guy to handle the day-to-day business interactions and dealings with other GM's. It would be better to have someone more amiable handle these responsibilities. He offered him the President of Hockey Operations position, basically giving him control of the entire hockey aspect of the Oilers franchise. I know it sounds like a figurehead kind of role, but it still gave Lowe control of the team's future, one he would implement using a management group of his choosing.

That being said, Katz wanted someone who would think on the same level of Lowe, sharing his view for the direction of the team. I think this is where he backed off and asked Lowe who HE would consider for the spot. Naturally, Lowe chose Tambellini, a guy he's worked with in the past as part of the Hockey Canada management group, and someone who shared his view and idea of how to run a hockey team. You can see him saying the same things Lowe has been.

"this is going to be a puck-possession team"
"we're going to be quick, skilled, and play with an edge"

Tambellini brings a fresh face to represent the club in its daily running, someone to deal with the agents, the GM's, and the media that have caused Lowe to lose 70% of his once luscious hair. But he also carries much respect and reputation in the league, and is someone Katz can trust the same way he trusts Kevin Lowe.

Major Changes in Upper Management

What a way to create a stir in one of the more boring weeks this off-season. The Edmonton Oilers today announced a trio of changes in the head office. Kevin Lowe, formerly the General Manager, is now President of Hockey Operations. Steve Tambellini, former assistant GM of the Vancouver Canucks, has been hired on by Lowe to be his successor (his first move as PoHO), while former Vice-President of Hockey Operations Kevin Prendergast has been shifted to the assistant GM spot alongside Rick Olczyk.

Surprise move, but if the Oilers were going to bring any outsider in for this spot, Tambellini was my first pick. He's worked with Lowe before on the 2002 and 2006 Olympic squads, and has plenty of experience with McTavish and other Oilers players when he was part of Hockey Canada's success at the World Hockey Championships from 2003-2004.

There's a lot to talk about this deal, including the motives, the new power breakdown, and what to expect looking forward. More to come on each of these topics in the days to follow.

How Howson Turned around a Trainwreck

The Columbus Blue Jackets remain the only franchise in the NHL right now that hasn't had a post-season birth. But with a slew of off-season changes and upgrades, we've seen them become legitimate playoff contenders here in the West. Credit has to go to former Oilers assistant GM Scott Howson, who was able to transform himself from a capologist to a legitimate hockey mind during his tenure here.

Entering the 2007 off-season, Howson had a disaster on his hands. The Blue Jackets were not only basement-dwellers, they were stagnating as a team in terms of player development and overall outlook. Former GM Doug McLean had failed to fulfill any of the pre-expansion promise he had shown before the team had materialized, and after 7 years of failure, it was time for a change.

Although the Jackets didn't improve at all last year, Howson and Co. were able to make some changes that not only opened up tons of cap space for the team, but improved their outlook heading into this offseason. Here are a few of the moves:

2007-2008
1) Signed Jan Hejda to a 1-year deal, before extending him for 3 more
-Hejda is arguably one of the NHL's best defensive defenseman, and will be a rock for years to come on the CBJ blue-line
2) Signed Jiri Novotny to a 2-year deal, and Chimera to a 4-year extension
-Novotny emerged as a solid 4th-line player for the Jackets last season, and put up 22 pts. One of the league's most underrated 3rd liners, Chimera is a solid 2-way presence
3) Dealt both Adam Foote and Sergei Fedorov at the deadline for a 1st and 2nd pick, respectively
-Major salary unload, while opening up roster space for next year, and grabbing solid picks to build up the prospects.

With some key components re-signed, and plenty of cap room freed up, Howson made his moves in the 2008 offseason:

2008 offseason
4) Signed Mike Commodore to a 5-year contract
-Commodore struggled to find his niche with Philips and Volchenkov already occupying it with the Senators, but should be a dominant force along with Hejda over this contract term at shutting down the opposition
5) Signed Kristian Huselius to a 4-year contract
-This granted Rick Nash his set-up man, and really helps boost the lacklustre offensive attack the BJ's had.
6) Traded Nikolai Zherdev for Christian Backman and Fedor Tyutin
-With Huselius signed, Howson moved Zherdev for 2 above-average defenders. Backman will help boost the break-out, while Tyutin's solid 2-way play adds to the top-4 in Columbus. This more than makes up for the loss of Ron Hainsey, who signed an inflated contract with the Thrashers
7) Traded for the rights to R.J Umberger, and signed him to a 4-year contract.
-This move gives them depth down the middle, and Umberger, with his untapped offensive potential, should have legitimate chances to shine alongside Nash and/or Huselius
8) Signed Mike Peca and Mike York to cheap, cheap deals
-These two players, although their careers are taking dives, will provide great leadership, depth, and some solid bottom-6 play when the BJ's need it.
9) Traded Gilbert Brule to the Oilers for Raffi Torres.
-They got rid of essentially a dead-end prospect in Brule for a proven 20-goal scorer in Raffi Torres. Both of these guys needed a change of scenery. Torres will get plenty of chance to shine in the top-6, and should return to 20+ form.
10) Re-signed Pascal Leclaire to a 3-year contract
-The guy emerged as a legitimate starter with the BJ's last season. He's young, he's fresh, and Howson got the deal done before his value skyrocketed.

With these 10 moves, Howson has created a legit playoff team here. Not only are a lot of these guys underrated (Hejda for example), but they have great coach in Hitchcock to help them further improve.

Nash Umberger Huselius
Torres Malhotra Voracek
Chimera Peca Novotny
Brassard Murray Filatov
Svitov
York

Hejda Commodore
Klesla Tyutin
Backman Russell
Tollefsson

Leclaire
Norrena

How about that, that gives the Blue Jackets plenty of room to work with their young players, while they have solid guys like Huselius and Commodore around to lead them. This team is going to grow, and if not this year, will be serious contenders in the years to come with the prospects they're accumulating and with the great leadership of Scotty Howson.

How far can Brodziak go?

Kyle Brodziak is one of the more interesting Oilers youngsters. The guy was drafted to be a 2-way presence and solid bottom-6 player, and after a few years of tumultuous development, we're seeing him blossom into a great NHL player. The knocks on him after being drafted were his speed and offensive skill, but he was able to overcome and both and make the NHL last season. It's hard to project just how far a kid like him can go.

Although it took Brodziak longer to become a player, he was able to grab the bull by the horns at age 23 and put up 80-14-17-31 playing on the 4th line all year.

Not only did he put up solid numbers in those limited minutes, we saw flashes of some of his undeveloped skills. Brodziak was a solid passer, solid shutdown presence on the PK and ES, a strong presence along the boards, and had a great shot. Remind you of anyone?

Shawn Horcoff broke into the league at age 23 and had 61-8-14-22 playing 4th line minutes with Laraque (Stortini) and Moreau (Glencross). Pro-rated to 80 games, he would have had slightly lower numbers than Brodziak in terms of points.

Brodziak's defensive game is even more advanced compared to Horcoff's at the same age, while Horcoff's speed back then was better than Brodziak's now. But with Brodziak working hard on his deficiencies, I really think he can eventually fulfill the same potential Horcoff did here.

Now, Horcoff was upgraded to that 2nd/3rd line role in his next full season, and put up a solid
78-12-21-33. This is essentially what Brodziak did last season, only he was younger and had less minutes.

If Brodziak can mirror or improve upon his stats from last year, while also maintaining the quality defensive play that he showed, he may be worth keeping for a very long time.

The Oilers PK, Part 2: Defensemen

Many held their breaths when the Oilers came into the 07-08 campaign. Although they had struggled the year before, they had still managed to be among the top-5 PK teams in the league, thanks to the likes of Jason Smith and Jan Hejda. With only Staios and Greene left as defensive stalworths, the Oilers were left to fend on the PK with a bunch of offensive-minded defensemen. Once again, a few surprises when we look at the GA/60min:

Souray: 3.68 (3.77 mpg)
Pitkanen: 3.94 (1.93 mpg)
Staios: 4.15 (3.71 mpg)
Gilbert: 4.88 (2.40 mpg)
Smid: 6.03 (2.30 mpg)
Greene: 7.20 (2.54 mpg)
Grebeshkov: 8.96 (1.13 mpg)

Now, with all the injuries, even guys like Grebs were getting some minutes on the PK.

Anyone surprised with Souray? Who knew the guy we were labeling as a defensive failure is our best PK, playing the most minutes? His big body presence was a much-needed relief. He effectively cleared the front of the net, and was able to smartly move the puck out when there was too much pressure. Hopefully he stays healthy so that great play continues alongside Staios.

Pitkanen's defense also took a beating while he was here. But the guy could flat-out play. Although you wouldn't see him being physical, he was effective in another way. Teams couldn't dump-and-chase with him on the ice, cause he'd beat them to the puck and clear it out. He was also effective at burning SH time by skating the puck out or feeding it up to the forwards. It proves you don't have to be a Gator in order to have success on the PK.

Staios was clutch, and is going to be expected to carry the same load again this year. Gilbert's numbers were even better earlier on in the year, and faded near the end. He may see more minutes with Greene's departure, alongside either Smid or Visnovsky.

Smid and Greene received too much credit as a pairing last year. They played soft minutes, and were terrible on the PK. Who would have thought the "shutdown defenseman" Greene was going to be one of the worst defenders we had on the PK. Both these guys had questionable decision-making and positioning throughout the season. Good riddance with Greene and hopefully Laddy learns how to play.

Grebeshkov is the last guy you'd expect to play PK, and his numbers reflect it. He's not here to play those SH-minutes though, and we all know that. His role is strictly PP/ES.

Oh yeah, and here's why Visnovsky's shouldn't see PK time:

Visnovsky: 6.43 (1.37 mpg)

It's kind of cool how these numbers kind of match up with one of my predictions in an earlier post (I swear I never consulted them before this):
Oilers PK Minutes Predictions

If Souray doesn't stay healthy, the Oilers PK is going to be even worse than last year. Otherwise it could be slightly better then last year.

The Oilers PK, Part 1: Forwards

Going over last year's stats regarding our PK, there are a few surprising stats that I found that would contradict a lot of what many Oiler fans have been discussing regarding the "defensive abilities" of our forwards:

Here top Oiler penalty killing forwards from last year, based on GA/60 min:

Reasoner: 4.49 (3.10 mpg)
Cogliano: 4.60 (0.80 mpg)
Brodziak: 4.82 (2.49 mpg)
Moreau: 5.17 (2.78 mpg)
Pisani: 5.24 (2.45 mpg)
Horcoff: 5.79 (2.54 mpg)
Stoll: 6.92 (2.67 mpg)

Keep in mind that after Horcoff got injured, Stoll and Pisani were our #1 PK unit, while Brodiak and Reasoner was the other. Moreau played a lot of 1st unit time when he was healthy alongside Horcoff

What surprises me is how much attention Jarret Stoll was getting as a defensive stalworth. He had easily the worst numbers on the team in terms of PK, and got some of the heaviest minutes; yet was the least effective. To the same effect, Reasoner was being vastly underrated for his PK presence. He was solid all year long. It's important to remember that both of these guys were both among the top minute-eating and faceoff-taking members of the team, and their departure means some others are going to step up.

Brodziak is going to be a major player on this year's PK, and I think it's imperative for him to learn to win faceoffs (he was 51.5% last season, not bad) if he's going to be relied upon during important times. He should be the 2nd option, after Horcoff, as a PK center.

If Moreau and Pisani don't stay healthy this year, we may be in the bottom-5 in penalty-killing, because I honestly don't think the kids are ready to take on that role this year.

Cogliano was a present surprise. Although he only played 0.80 mpg on the PK because of our depth, he not only had an impressive 4.60 GA/60min, he led the team on the PK with 3.68 GF/60 min as well. His speed made him such a threat that it not only deterred the other team's PP, it helped our PK create offense in the absence of the usual SH scorers like Moreau.

Can anyone say Marchant?

Here's another interesting thing:

Eric Cole: 5.40 (0.90 mpg)

Cole was getting some hype as a PK presence from posters on HF. With these numbers, I don't think we'll see him getting much chance to play the PK unless one of Moreau/Pisani go down.

Oilers sign Delauriers

The Oilers made a risky, yet necessary, move today, signing 24-year old Jeff Delauriers to a 2-year, one-way deal.

As it breaks down, it'll be $550,000 the first year and $700,000 the second. That's not too bad for a potential back-up goaltender.

I know many will ask, "why the hell did Lowe give him a one-way deal?". It's not like Deslauriers was in any position to demand one, seeing as how he's yet to play in an NHL contest. But I think this is more strategy than anything else with Lowe. Let's look into Deslaurier's past why don't we?

Deslauriers was drafted in the 2nd round, 31st overall in the 2002 NHL draft, which is hella early for someone slated to develop into a backup. After suffering through a tumultuous 2002-2003 campaign with the Chicoutimi Sagueneens (.888 S%, 3.81 GAA), Deslauriers really stepped it up in 03-04, where he led the Sagueneens to a deep playoff run after posting a 0.916 S% on the season.

Deslauriers' first taste at the pro game came in the following season, where he played the lockout year with the Edmonton Roadrunners. He wasn't too bad for a rookie, posting a 0.888 S% and 2.96 GAA on a poor, poor team. From there started the tumultuous development period for the Oilers prospects, with the Oilers losing an AHL affiliate. Deslauriers was forced to play stints with teams like the Greenville Grrrowl, Hamilton Bulldogs, Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins, and last year, the Springfield Falcons.

Deslauriers suffered with the instability of the Oilers' minor league program, and his stats suffered badly until the 2007-08 campaign. By then, many were saying they'd be surprised if he even makes it as a back-up in the NHL. The guy the Oilers had been touting as a potential starter was clearly not showing it.

Things changed with the Oilers securing an affiliation with the Falcons, and with his spot in the lineup secured, Deslauriers led Springfield with his great goaltending, posting a 0.912 S% on what was one of the worst defenses in the league. He started to show signs of fulfilling the potential that got him drafted early in the 2nd round in 2002.

With that, the Oilers were faced with a dilemma. Deslauriers' contract had expired at the end of the 2007-2008 season, and was ready for an extension. However, as it was, they couldn't send him back down to the minors without having him pass through waivers. Given his recent performance, and the unpredictable nature of goaltender development, it was clear that one of the other 29 teams were going to pick him up as a backup.

Knowing this, Lowe signed Deslauriers to a one-way deal, to ward off teams that wanted to take a flyer on him, and send him down if it didn't pan out.

With Roloson wanting to start, and Garon clearly our starter, it appears that we're on the verge of a changing of the guard in the Oilers' crease. Deslauriers is going to be sticking around, and Roloson may be shipped out early in the season to a team that needs to hit the basement.

And Oiler fans, there's no need to worry. We've seen Deslauriers play at TC and in the pre-season, and he was easily able to hold his own. I've always been impressed with his play in the pre-season games, and I think he'll surprise a lot of his doubters this season.

Good signing by Lowe, assuring that there would be a "kid" movement at the goaltender front as well. This bodes well for Devyn Dubnyk, who is slated to be the starter now in Springfield. Jeff has earned it.