Thursday, July 31, 2008

Head Office Shuffling: Why?



"I plan to leave the management of the team and its public communications to the management."
-Darryl Katz, after finalizing his takeover of the Edmonton Oilers
"He wanted to allow us the management to strenghten our management group"
-
Kevin Lowe

Heading into this off-season, new Oilers owner Darryl Katz seemed to project an "hands-off" mentality when addressing how he would be involved in the daily running of things as the Oilers GM. But this move has all the makings of a Katzian decision.

I think we were all under the impression that things were going to be the same regardless of the ownership change. Lowe would continue to be the GM, and be the big player in the head office in terms of dealing with other teams, agents, and the running of the team.

But I think Katz noticed that some things needed to change over his first month as GM. Lowe is one of the most brilliant hockey minds in the game, someone more than capable of running a team. But his passion for the well-being of this organization has caused some tumultuous situations, and he is disliked by many prominent members of the hockey community (Burke, Winters, Regier). On top of that, the image of Edmonton had taken a considerable toll under Lowe's tenure as GM. That's not necessarily Lowe's fault, but people around the league are quick to associate his face with the city's poor image. Losing out on both Hossa and Jagr must have been disheartening for Katz, who usually is able to do what he wants in the business world. The idea of bringing a fresh, positive face to the front office would help in his goal of essentially turning this franchise, this city, and its image around in the future.

He looked around the league, and saw what was bringing teams success. The Detroit Red Wings, the top franchise in the NHL for the past decade, have always been known for their strong scouting staff. But on top of that, they have an exceptional management group aiding GM Ken Holland with running the club (Jim Devallano, Scotty Bowman, Steve Yzerman, and Jim Nill). Katz has been used to having a management group coordinate his business affairs (including with the Rexall Group), and it was only natural for him to take to this idea of accumulating a group of experienced, reknowned hockey minds in order to strengthen the overall management of the team. Investing money in brining in quality talent at the highest levels of a team's operations seems like a sensible way of improving the on-ice product.

With all this on his mind, Katz approached Lowe about the possibility of shifting things around. He respects Lowe and what his knowledge brings to this organization, but he was simply not ideal to have around as the guy to handle the day-to-day business interactions and dealings with other GM's. It would be better to have someone more amiable handle these responsibilities. He offered him the President of Hockey Operations position, basically giving him control of the entire hockey aspect of the Oilers franchise. I know it sounds like a figurehead kind of role, but it still gave Lowe control of the team's future, one he would implement using a management group of his choosing.

That being said, Katz wanted someone who would think on the same level of Lowe, sharing his view for the direction of the team. I think this is where he backed off and asked Lowe who HE would consider for the spot. Naturally, Lowe chose Tambellini, a guy he's worked with in the past as part of the Hockey Canada management group, and someone who shared his view and idea of how to run a hockey team. You can see him saying the same things Lowe has been.

"this is going to be a puck-possession team"
"we're going to be quick, skilled, and play with an edge"

Tambellini brings a fresh face to represent the club in its daily running, someone to deal with the agents, the GM's, and the media that have caused Lowe to lose 70% of his once luscious hair. But he also carries much respect and reputation in the league, and is someone Katz can trust the same way he trusts Kevin Lowe.

Major Changes in Upper Management

What a way to create a stir in one of the more boring weeks this off-season. The Edmonton Oilers today announced a trio of changes in the head office. Kevin Lowe, formerly the General Manager, is now President of Hockey Operations. Steve Tambellini, former assistant GM of the Vancouver Canucks, has been hired on by Lowe to be his successor (his first move as PoHO), while former Vice-President of Hockey Operations Kevin Prendergast has been shifted to the assistant GM spot alongside Rick Olczyk.

Surprise move, but if the Oilers were going to bring any outsider in for this spot, Tambellini was my first pick. He's worked with Lowe before on the 2002 and 2006 Olympic squads, and has plenty of experience with McTavish and other Oilers players when he was part of Hockey Canada's success at the World Hockey Championships from 2003-2004.

There's a lot to talk about this deal, including the motives, the new power breakdown, and what to expect looking forward. More to come on each of these topics in the days to follow.

How Howson Turned around a Trainwreck


The Columbus Blue Jackets remain the only franchise in the NHL right now that hasn't had a post-season birth. But with a slew of off-season changes and upgrades, we've seen them become legitimate playoff contenders here in the West. Credit has to go to former Oilers assistant GM Scott Howson, who was able to transform himself from a capologist to a legitimate hockey mind during his tenure here.

Entering the 2007 off-season, Howson had a disaster on his hands. The Blue Jackets were not only basement-dwellers, they were stagnating as a team in terms of player development and overall outlook. Former GM Doug McLean had failed to fulfill any of the pre-expansion promise he had shown before the team had materialized, and after 7 years of failure, it was time for a change.

Although the Jackets didn't improve at all last year, Howson and Co. were able to make some changes that not only opened up tons of cap space for the team, but improved their outlook heading into this offseason. Here are a few of the moves:

2007-2008
1) Signed Jan Hejda to a 1-year deal, before extending him for 3 more
-Hejda is arguably one of the NHL's best defensive defenseman, and will be a rock for years to come on the CBJ blue-line
2) Signed Jiri Novotny to a 2-year deal, and Chimera to a 4-year extension
-Novotny emerged as a solid 4th-line player for the Jackets last season, and put up 22 pts. One of the league's most underrated 3rd liners, Chimera is a solid 2-way presence
3) Dealt both Adam Foote and Sergei Fedorov at the deadline for a 1st and 2nd pick, respectively
-Major salary unload, while opening up roster space for next year, and grabbing solid picks to build up the prospects.

With some key components re-signed, and plenty of cap room freed up, Howson made his moves in the 2008 offseason:

2008 offseason
4) Signed Mike Commodore to a 5-year contract
-Commodore struggled to find his niche with Philips and Volchenkov already occupying it with the Senators, but should be a dominant force along with Hejda over this contract term at shutting down the opposition
5) Signed Kristian Huselius to a 4-year contract
-This granted Rick Nash his set-up man, and really helps boost the lacklustre offensive attack the BJ's had.
6) Traded Nikolai Zherdev for Christian Backman and Fedor Tyutin
-With Huselius signed, Howson moved Zherdev for 2 above-average defenders. Backman will help boost the break-out, while Tyutin's solid 2-way play adds to the top-4 in Columbus. This more than makes up for the loss of Ron Hainsey, who signed an inflated contract with the Thrashers
7) Traded for the rights to R.J Umberger, and signed him to a 4-year contract.
-This move gives them depth down the middle, and Umberger, with his untapped offensive potential, should have legitimate chances to shine alongside Nash and/or Huselius
8) Signed Mike Peca and Mike York to cheap, cheap deals
-These two players, although their careers are taking dives, will provide great leadership, depth, and some solid bottom-6 play when the BJ's need it.
9) Traded Gilbert Brule to the Oilers for Raffi Torres.
-They got rid of essentially a dead-end prospect in Brule for a proven 20-goal scorer in Raffi Torres. Both of these guys needed a change of scenery. Torres will get plenty of chance to shine in the top-6, and should return to 20+ form.
10) Re-signed Pascal Leclaire to a 3-year contract
-The guy emerged as a legitimate starter with the BJ's last season. He's young, he's fresh, and Howson got the deal done before his value skyrocketed.

With these 10 moves, Howson has created a legit playoff team here. Not only are a lot of these guys underrated (Hejda for example), but they have great coach in Hitchcock to help them further improve.

Nash Umberger Huselius
Torres Malhotra Voracek
Chimera Peca Novotny
Brassard Murray Filatov
Svitov
York

Hejda Commodore
Klesla Tyutin
Backman Russell
Tollefsson

Leclaire
Norrena

How about that, that gives the Blue Jackets plenty of room to work with their young players, while they have solid guys like Huselius and Commodore around to lead them. This team is going to grow, and if not this year, will be serious contenders in the years to come with the prospects they're accumulating and with the great leadership of Scotty Howson.

How far can Brodziak go?


Kyle Brodziak is one of the more interesting Oilers youngsters. The guy was drafted to be a 2-way presence and solid bottom-6 player, and after a few years of tumultuous development, we're seeing him blossom into a great NHL player. The knocks on him after being drafted were his speed and offensive skill, but he was able to overcome and both and make the NHL last season. It's hard to project just how far a kid like him can go.

Although it took Brodziak longer to become a player, he was able to grab the bull by the horns at age 23 and put up 80-14-17-31 playing on the 4th line all year.

Not only did he put up solid numbers in those limited minutes, we saw flashes of some of his undeveloped skills. Brodziak was a solid passer, solid shutdown presence on the PK and ES, a strong presence along the boards, and had a great shot. Remind you of anyone?

Shawn Horcoff broke into the league at age 23 and had 61-8-14-22 playing 4th line minutes with Laraque (Stortini) and Moreau (Glencross). Pro-rated to 80 games, he would have had slightly lower numbers than Brodziak in terms of points.

Brodziak's defensive game is even more advanced compared to Horcoff's at the same age, while Horcoff's speed back then was better than Brodziak's now. But with Brodziak working hard on his deficiencies, I really think he can eventually fulfill the same potential Horcoff did here.

Now, Horcoff was upgraded to that 2nd/3rd line role in his next full season, and put up a solid
78-12-21-33. This is essentially what Brodziak did last season, only he was younger and had less minutes.

If Brodziak can mirror or improve upon his stats from last year, while also maintaining the quality defensive play that he showed, he may be worth keeping for a very long time.




Tuesday, July 22, 2008

The Oilers PK, Part 2: Defensemen


Many held their breaths when the Oilers came into the 07-08 campaign. Although they had struggled the year before, they had still managed to be among the top-5 PK teams in the league, thanks to the likes of Jason Smith and Jan Hejda. With only Staios and Greene left as defensive stalworths, the Oilers were left to fend on the PK with a bunch of offensive-minded defensemen. Once again, a few surprises when we look at the GA/60min:

Souray: 3.68 (3.77 mpg)
Pitkanen: 3.94 (1.93 mpg)
Staios: 4.15 (3.71 mpg)
Gilbert: 4.88 (2.40 mpg)
Smid: 6.03 (2.30 mpg)
Greene: 7.20 (2.54 mpg)
Grebeshkov: 8.96 (1.13 mpg)

Now, with all the injuries, even guys like Grebs were getting some minutes on the PK.

Anyone surprised with Souray? Who knew the guy we were labeling as a defensive failure is our best PK, playing the most minutes? His big body presence was a much-needed relief. He effectively cleared the front of the net, and was able to smartly move the puck out when there was too much pressure. Hopefully he stays healthy so that great play continues alongside Staios.

Pitkanen's defense also took a beating while he was here. But the guy could flat-out play. Although you wouldn't see him being physical, he was effective in another way. Teams couldn't dump-and-chase with him on the ice, cause he'd beat them to the puck and clear it out. He was also effective at burning SH time by skating the puck out or feeding it up to the forwards. It proves you don't have to be a Gator in order to have success on the PK.

Staios was clutch, and is going to be expected to carry the same load again this year. Gilbert's numbers were even better earlier on in the year, and faded near the end. He may see more minutes with Greene's departure, alongside either Smid or Visnovsky.

Smid and Greene received too much credit as a pairing last year. They played soft minutes, and were terrible on the PK. Who would have thought the "shutdown defenseman" Greene was going to be one of the worst defenders we had on the PK. Both these guys had questionable decision-making and positioning throughout the season. Good riddance with Greene and hopefully Laddy learns how to play.

Grebeshkov is the last guy you'd expect to play PK, and his numbers reflect it. He's not here to play those SH-minutes though, and we all know that. His role is strictly PP/ES.

Oh yeah, and here's why Visnovsky's shouldn't see PK time:

Visnovsky: 6.43 (1.37 mpg)

It's kind of cool how these numbers kind of match up with one of my predictions in an earlier post (I swear I never consulted them before this):
Oilers PK Minutes Predictions

If Souray doesn't stay healthy, the Oilers PK is going to be even worse than last year. Otherwise it could be slightly better then last year.

The Oilers PK, Part 1: Forwards


Going over last year's stats regarding our PK, there are a few surprising stats that I found that would contradict a lot of what many Oiler fans have been discussing regarding the "defensive abilities" of our forwards:

Here top Oiler penalty killing forwards from last year, based on GA/60 min:

Reasoner: 4.49 (3.10 mpg)
Cogliano: 4.60 (0.80 mpg)
Brodziak: 4.82 (2.49 mpg)
Moreau: 5.17 (2.78 mpg)
Pisani: 5.24 (2.45 mpg)
Horcoff: 5.79 (2.54 mpg)
Stoll: 6.92 (2.67 mpg)

Keep in mind that after Horcoff got injured, Stoll and Pisani were our #1 PK unit, while Brodiak and Reasoner was the other. Moreau played a lot of 1st unit time when he was healthy alongside Horcoff

What surprises me is how much attention Jarret Stoll was getting as a defensive stalworth. He had easily the worst numbers on the team in terms of PK, and got some of the heaviest minutes; yet was the least effective. To the same effect, Reasoner was being vastly underrated for his PK presence. He was solid all year long. It's important to remember that both of these guys were both among the top minute-eating and faceoff-taking members of the team, and their departure means some others are going to step up.

Brodziak is going to be a major player on this year's PK, and I think it's imperative for him to learn to win faceoffs (he was 51.5% last season, not bad) if he's going to be relied upon during important times. He should be the 2nd option, after Horcoff, as a PK center.

If Moreau and Pisani don't stay healthy this year, we may be in the bottom-5 in penalty-killing, because I honestly don't think the kids are ready to take on that role this year.

Cogliano was a present surprise. Although he only played 0.80 mpg on the PK because of our depth, he not only had an impressive 4.60 GA/60min, he led the team on the PK with 3.68 GF/60 min as well. His speed made him such a threat that it not only deterred the other team's PP, it helped our PK create offense in the absence of the usual SH scorers like Moreau.

Can anyone say Marchant?

Here's another interesting thing:

Eric Cole: 5.40 (0.90 mpg)

Cole was getting some hype as a PK presence from posters on HF. With these numbers, I don't think we'll see him getting much chance to play the PK unless one of Moreau/Pisani go down.

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Oilers sign Delauriers

The Oilers made a risky, yet necessary, move today, signing 24-year old Jeff Delauriers to a 2-year, one-way deal.

As it breaks down, it'll be $550,000 the first year and $700,000 the second. That's not too bad for a potential back-up goaltender.

I know many will ask, "why the hell did Lowe give him a one-way deal?". It's not like Deslauriers was in any position to demand one, seeing as how he's yet to play in an NHL contest. But I think this is more strategy than anything else with Lowe. Let's look into Deslaurier's past why don't we?

Deslauriers was drafted in the 2nd round, 31st overall in the 2002 NHL draft, which is hella early for someone slated to develop into a backup. After suffering through a tumultuous 2002-2003 campaign with the Chicoutimi Sagueneens (.888 S%, 3.81 GAA), Deslauriers really stepped it up in 03-04, where he led the Sagueneens to a deep playoff run after posting a 0.916 S% on the season.

Deslauriers' first taste at the pro game came in the following season, where he played the lockout year with the Edmonton Roadrunners. He wasn't too bad for a rookie, posting a 0.888 S% and 2.96 GAA on a poor, poor team. From there started the tumultuous development period for the Oilers prospects, with the Oilers losing an AHL affiliate. Deslauriers was forced to play stints with teams like the Greenville Grrrowl, Hamilton Bulldogs, Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins, and last year, the Springfield Falcons.

Deslauriers suffered with the instability of the Oilers' minor league program, and his stats suffered badly until the 2007-08 campaign. By then, many were saying they'd be surprised if he even makes it as a back-up in the NHL. The guy the Oilers had been touting as a potential starter was clearly not showing it.

Things changed with the Oilers securing an affiliation with the Falcons, and with his spot in the lineup secured, Deslauriers led Springfield with his great goaltending, posting a 0.912 S% on what was one of the worst defenses in the league. He started to show signs of fulfilling the potential that got him drafted early in the 2nd round in 2002.

With that, the Oilers were faced with a dilemma. Deslauriers' contract had expired at the end of the 2007-2008 season, and was ready for an extension. However, as it was, they couldn't send him back down to the minors without having him pass through waivers. Given his recent performance, and the unpredictable nature of goaltender development, it was clear that one of the other 29 teams were going to pick him up as a backup.

Knowing this, Lowe signed Deslauriers to a one-way deal, to ward off teams that wanted to take a flyer on him, and send him down if it didn't pan out.

With Roloson wanting to start, and Garon clearly our starter, it appears that we're on the verge of a changing of the guard in the Oilers' crease. Deslauriers is going to be sticking around, and Roloson may be shipped out early in the season to a team that needs to hit the basement.

And Oiler fans, there's no need to worry. We've seen Deslauriers play at TC and in the pre-season, and he was easily able to hold his own. I've always been impressed with his play in the pre-season games, and I think he'll surprise a lot of his doubters this season.

Good signing by Lowe, assuring that there would be a "kid" movement at the goaltender front as well. This bodes well for Devyn Dubnyk, who is slated to be the starter now in Springfield. Jeff has earned it.